Between the Dragon and the Deep Blue Sea: Thematic Historical Perspectives on a Potential Economic Blockade of China by the United States of America

Reeve, John, Humanities & Social Sciences, UNSW Canberra, UNSW; Goldrick, James, Humanities & Social Sciences, UNSW Canberra, UNSW

2016

The thesis employs a thematic approach and comparative historical analysis to assess the strategic efficacy of a potential maritime blockade of the People’s Republic of China by the United States of America and its allies, with reference to associated operational issues. It thus follows broadly the methodology of Alfred Thayer Mahan and, more recently, of such writers as Colin Gray and Geoffrey Till, in terms of using historical case studies to illuminate contemporary maritime strategic issues. After establishing the precise definition of a blockade, the thesis analyses key thematic elements in the history of economic blockade that may relate to the China case. These include issues influencing a state’s comparative vulnerability to economic blockade, such as international law, financial and economic factors, and political and moral considerations. It then discusses the role of economic blockade in wider strategy and the issue of strategic effectiveness, and these themes are subsequently applied in succession to the US-China scenario. The thesis utilizes a variety of historical and contemporary primary sources. The former include letters, personal papers, articles, memoirs, reports and diaries, some of which are available in the documentary resources published by the British Navy Records Society. The latter include statistical and analytical reports by governments and non-governmental organizations, data pertaining to international maritime transport, media articles and various other online sources. A broad cross-section of secondary sources has also been utilized, from the works of the classical maritime-strategic historians Alfred Thayer Mahan and Julian Corbett to standard texts and studies by modern naval-maritime scholars such as Paul Kennedy, Bruce Elleman, Sarah Paine, and legal scholars including Wolff Heintschel von Heinegg. More recent studies employed include those of Nicholas Lambert, Stephen Cobb, and Lance E. Davis and Stanley L. Engerman. The thesis concludes that a US economic blockade of China could be strategically effective, albeit in an indirect manner, but that legal and political considerations in particular would probably limit the scope within which this belligerent right could be exercised.

University of New South Wales

7069D6A8861C7947

This thesis or dissertation is protected by copyright: all rights reserved. It may not be copied or redistributed beyond the terms of applicable copyright laws.

OpenDissertations was funded in part by a grant from The H.W. Wilson Foundation, Inc. in cooperation with EBSCO Information Services and the Congregational Library and Archives.